Market data: EWMA and GARCH(1,1) parameter estimation
- Compare the volatility of the ABB share obtained for the EWMA model
with a constant
or a maximum likelihood estimate
of the parameter.
Identify regimes where the estimate may be above or below 0.94.
- Study the volatility obtained for the GARCH(1,1) model, checking whether
it is possible to define a long-term average, evaluate the impact
of recent events and tell how quickly they are forgotten.
- Which value of the volatility would you use to predict the financial
risk in the year following this sequence?
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